Wildfires set to rise 50 percent by year 2050

Climate scientists project that the area of forest burnt by wildfires in the United States will increase by over 50 percent by 2050. A team of researchers arrived at these numbers in a study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

The scientists constructed a model using data documenting the area of forest burned on federal land since 1980 along with weather data from the US Forest Service. The model takes into account the factors that can best predict the area burned in each ecosystem in the western United States. The research is based on a projected temperature increase of 1.6 degrees Celsius over the next 40 years.

A wildfire in the Bitterroot National Forest, Montana. Image Credit, John McColgan, employed as a fire behavior analyst with US Forest Service.The forest fire figures are even more ominous for the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Northwest regions where the area burnt by wildfires is predicted to rise 178% and 75% respectively. The research also predicts a 40% increase in the western United States in the concentration of organic carbon aerosol or tiny soot particles that affect air quality and visibility.

My first thought is 'Wow, those are huge numbers.' Especially considering the massive wildfires we see in the western United States every year. My second thought is, 'At least we have 41 years before we have to worry about it.' Just kidding, though, unfortunately that seems to be the prevailing attitude in the United States towards climate change right now.